Search results for "Bayesian [statistics]"
showing 10 items of 228 documents
A Bayesian Learning Automaton for Solving Two-Armed Bernoulli Bandit Problems
2008
The two-armed Bernoulli bandit (TABB) problem is a classical optimization problem where an agent sequentially pulls one of two arms attached to a gambling machine, with each pull resulting either in a reward or a penalty. The reward probabilities of each arm are unknown, and thus one must balance between exploiting existing knowledge about the arms, and obtaining new information. In the last decades, several computationally efficient algorithms for tackling this problem have emerged, with learning automata (LA) being known for their ?-optimality, and confidence interval based for logarithmically growing regret. Applications include treatment selection in clinical trials, route selection in …
Correlation between neonatal outcomes of twins depends on the outcome : Secondary analysis of twelve randomised controlled trials
2018
ObjectiveTo estimate the magnitude of the correlation between neonatal outcomes of twins and demonstrate how this information can be used in the design of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in women with twin pregnancies.DesignSecondary analysis of data from 12 RCTs.SettingObstetric care in multiple countries, 2004-2012.Population or sample4504 twin pairs born to women who participated in RCTs to assess treatments given during pregnancy.MethodsIntraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were estimated using log-binomial and linear models.Main outcome measuresPerinatal death, respiratory distress syndrome, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, intraventricular haemorrhage, necrotising enterocolitis, s…
Book Review: Another Science Is Possible
2018
The Phylogenetic position of Daubentonia madagascariensis (Gmelin, 1788; primates, Strepsirhini) as revealed by chromosomal analysis
2012
One of the major topics in primate evolution is the phylogenetic position of the bizarre Daubentonia madagascariensis (DMA, aye-aye). The principal points that have been discussed for many decades are whether the aye-aye is: (i) the sister group of primates; (ii) the sister group of strepsirhines; or (iii) the sister group of lemurs. Very little is known about Daubentonia evolution, particularly on the chromosomal background. The present report focuses on the chromosomal history of this species. We used available chromosome painting data as the main source to identify conserved chromosomes, chromosomal segments and syntenic associations that have characterized the aye-aye karyotype. The dat…
On the measured lifetime of light hypernuclei 3ΛH and 4ΛH
2014
A statistical combination of the experimental lifetime estimations available in the literatures is performed for 3 Λ H and 4 Λ H, including several recent measurements. The combined average values of the lifetime for 3 Λ H and 4 Λ H are respectively 216−16+19 ps and 192−18+20 ps with a reduced χ2 of 0.89 and 0.48. A new insight into the lifetime estimation of the HypHI Phase 0 experiment by a Bayesian approach is also presented. In this approach, several different prior distributions including the combination of previous lifetime data and a Jeffrey prior are used. The principal mode and the smallest credible interval at 68% of the posterior distribution, given by the prior belief of the pre…
The Wage Curve, Once More with Feeling: Bayesian Model Averaging of Heckit Models
2018
The sensitivity of the wage curve to sample-selection and model uncertainty was evaluated with Bayesian methods. More than 8000 Heckit wage curves were estimated using data from the 2017 household survey of Bolivia. After averaging the estimates with the posterior probability of each model being true, the wage curve elasticity in Bolivia is close to -0.01. This result suggests that in this country the wage curve is inelastic and does not follow the international statistical regularity of wage curves.
Bayesian applications in dynamic econometric models
2009
The purpose of this thesis is to provide a few new ideas to the field of Bayesian econometrics. In particular, the focus of the thesis is on analyzing dynamic econometric models. In the first essay, we provide an easily implementable method for the Bayesian analysis of a simple hybrid DSGE model of Clarida et al. (1999). The forecasting properties of the model are tested against commonly used forecasting tools, such as Bayesian VARs and naïve forecasts based on univariate random walks. In particular, the predictability of three key macroeconomic-variables, inflation, short-term nominal interest rate and a measure of output gap, are studied using quarterly ex post and real-time U.S. data.Our…
CiliaCarta: An integrated and validated compendium of ciliary genes
2019
The cilium is an essential organelle at the surface of mammalian cells whose dysfunction causes a wide range of genetic diseases collectively called ciliopathies. The current rate at which new ciliopathy genes are identified suggests that many ciliary components remain undiscovered. We generated and rigorously analyzed genomic, proteomic, transcriptomic and evolutionary data and systematically integrated these using Bayesian statistics into a predictive score for ciliary function. This resulted in 285 candidate ciliary genes. We generated independent experimental evidence of ciliary associations for 24 out of 36 analyzed candidate proteins using multiple cell and animal model systems (mouse…
On using novel “Anti-Bayesian” techniques for the classification of dynamical data streams
2017
The classification of dynamical data streams is among the most complex problems encountered in classification. This is, firstly, because the distribution of the data streams is non-stationary, and it changes without any prior “warning”. Secondly, the manner in which it changes is also unknown. Thirdly, and more interestingly, the model operates with the assumption that the correct classes of previously-classified patterns become available at a juncture after their appearance. This paper pioneers the use of unreported novel schemes that can classify such dynamical data streams by invoking the recently-introduced “Anti-Bayesian” (AB) techniques. Contrary to the Bayesian paradigm, that compare…
Inference and prediction in bulk arrival queues and queues with service in stages
1998
This paper deals with the statistical analysis from a Bayesian point of view, of bulk arrival queues where the batch size is considered as a fixed constant. The focus is on prediction of the usual measures of performance of the system in the steady state. The probability generating function of the posterior predictive distribution of the number of customers in the system and the Laplace transform of the posterior predictive distribution of the waiting time in the system are obtained. Numerical inversion of these transforms is considered. Inference and prediction of its equivalent single queue with service in stages is also discussed.